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Params: post, 556326, a:19:{i:0;s:141:"由密歇根大学带领的一项新研究发现，世界上最大的冰盖发生突然崩塌的危险性，可能较之前的预测更低。";i:1;a:4:{s:3:"tag";s:1:"b";s:6:"option";N;s:8:"original";a:2:{i:0;s:3:"[B]";i:1;s:4:"[/B]";}s:8:"children";a:1:{i:0;s:129:"在发表于《科学》杂志上的这篇研究论文中，研究团队对位于西南极洲的思韦茨冰川进行了模拟。";}}i:2;s:113:"作为当今世界上最大、最不稳定的冰川之一，研究人员模拟了不同高度的冰崖坍塌。
";i:3;a:4:{s:3:"tag";s:3:"img";s:6:"option";N;s:8:"original";a:2:{i:0;s:5:"[IMG]";i:1;s:6:"[/IMG]";}s:8:"children";a:1:{i:0;s:90:"https://rdimg.com/proxy/https://static.cnbetacdn.com/article/2021/0620/d3328fb33b8e928.jpg";}}i:4;s:2:"
";i:5;a:4:{s:3:"tag";s:6:"center";s:6:"option";N;s:8:"original";a:2:{i:0;s:8:"[CENTER]";i:1;s:9:"[/CENTER]";}s:8:"children";a:1:{i:0;s:34:"（图自：NASA / James Yungel）";}}i:6;s:148:"
可即便是冰川冰架与海洋交汇处近乎垂直的地层，研究人员发现所谓的不稳定，并不总是会导致快速的崩解。
";i:7;a:4:{s:3:"tag";s:1:"b";s:6:"option";N;s:8:"original";a:2:{i:0;s:3:"[B]";i:1;s:4:"[/B]";}s:8:"children";a:1:{i:0;s:81:"密歇根大学气候、空间科学与工程系副教授 Jeremy Bassis 表示：";}}i:8;s:2:"
";i:9;a:4:{s:3:"tag";s:6:"indent";s:6:"option";N;s:8:"original";a:2:{i:0;s:8:"[INDENT]";i:1;s:9:"[/INDENT]";}s:8:"children";a:1:{i:0;s:345:"
我们发现，在很长一段时间里，冰的行为就像是一种粘性流体，你可将之想象成一张在锅里摊开的煎饼。
如果这些冰散开和变薄的速度，远比崩溃要快得多，那崩塌前就可以维持更长时间的稳定性。
但若冰层无法足够迅速地变薄，还是有可能迅速发生崩塌。
";}}i:10;s:221:"
据悉，这是研究人员首次将冰崩和冰流的变量结合起来。结果发现，冰的拉伸和变薄、以及被困冰块的支撑状况，或可减轻因破裂而引起的海上冰崖的不稳定影响。
";i:11;a:4:{s:3:"tag";s:6:"center";s:6:"option";N;s:8:"original";a:2:{i:0;s:8:"[CENTER]";i:1;s:9:"[/CENTER]";}s:8:"children";a:3:{i:0;s:62:"Doomsday Glacier - May Be More Stable Than Initially Feared（";i:1;a:4:{s:3:"tag";s:3:"url";s:6:"option";s:63:"https://tv.sohu.com/v/dXMvODIyMjQwNTMvMjY2MDQ3NDAwLnNodG1s.html";s:8:"original";a:2:{i:0;s:71:"[URL='https://tv.sohu.com/v/dXMvODIyMjQwNTMvMjY2MDQ3NDAwLnNodG1s.html']";i:1;s:6:"[/URL]";}s:8:"children";a:1:{i:0;s:3:"via";}}i:2;s:3:"）";}}i:12;s:554:"
新发现为先前被称作“海洋冰崖不稳定性”的理论增添了一些细微的差别。该理论指出，如果冰崖的高度达到某个阈值，它就会在冰裂缝的连锁反应时，突然在自重作用下解体。
南极的思韦茨冰川（有时又被称作“世界末日冰川”），目前正在接近这个阈值。如果完全崩塌，后续或导致海平面上升近 3 英尺（约 0.9 米）。
其面积达到了 74000 平方英里，与美国佛罗里达州相当，且特别受到气候和海洋变化的影响。
";i:13;a:4:{s:3:"tag";s:3:"img";s:6:"option";N;s:8:"original";a:2:{i:0;s:5:"[IMG]";i:1;s:6:"[/IMG]";}s:8:"children";a:1:{i:0;s:90:"https://rdimg.com/proxy/https://static.cnbetacdn.com/article/2021/0620/09845021351e342.jpg";}}i:14;s:509:"
违反直觉的是，研究团队指出 —— 在被称作“冰山崩塌”的过程中，从主要的冰川上破裂和脱落的冰山，实际上可能会阻止、而不是导致灾难性的崩塌。
如果冰块卡在海底的露头上，甚至有助于维持冰川的稳定。
不过 Jeremy Bassis 指出，即使冰川没有发生灾难性的坍塌，高度暴露的悬崖仍可能引发每年数公里的后撤（约合 20 个足球场的长度），并为将来的海平面上升推波助澜。
";i:15;a:4:{s:3:"tag";s:3:"img";s:6:"option";N;s:8:"original";a:2:{i:0;s:5:"[IMG]";i:1;s:6:"[/IMG]";}s:8:"children";a:1:{i:0;s:90:"https://rdimg.com/proxy/https://static.cnbetacdn.com/article/2021/0620/77169118aef9ac5.jpg";}}i:16;s:601:"
至于海平面的上升速度，思韦茨和其它冰川确实也很明显正在融化。所以沿海地区在制定适应和巩固策略时，仍需要对这些方面保持较高的关注度。
遗憾的是，想要精确预测冰川的消退，本就是一项令人费解的复杂业务，毕竟它们受到了无数因素相互作用的影响 —— 数十亿吨重的冰的压力和应变、不断变化的空气和水温、以及流动的液态水等。
目前对于思韦茨冰川崩塌的预测，从几十年到数百年不等。好消息是，Jeremy Bassis 参与的这项新研究（via";i:17;a:4:{s:3:"tag";s:3:"url";s:6:"option";s:52:"https://science.sciencemag.org/content/372/6548/1342";s:8:"original";a:2:{i:0;s:60:"[URL='https://science.sciencemag.org/content/372/6548/1342']";i:1;s:6:"[/URL]";}s:8:"children";a:1:{i:0;s:7:"Science";}}i:18;s:78:"），正朝着可产生准确预测的相关操作而迈出了重要一步。";}, 1621686945, 1716126542
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